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1月份外贸大幅减少29%

时间:2011-01-12 13:45 点击:
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包括一周时间的春节假日,今年1月进出口锐减,让经济学家又困惑又惊慌。

海关总署昨天发布的数据显示,出口比上年同期直降17.5%,比上年12月2.8%的下降更快。

进口甚至下滑更严重,为去年同期的43.1%。

一年月总外贸比上年同期下跌29%。这是自改革开放30年来极为少见的月度外贸额下跌。

经济学家称,由于全球经济下滑,外贸可能继续数月下滑。中国经济商业监察宏观经济学家苏昌称,今年一季度可能下滑10%。

“而且中国的年度数据可能会为负”。不过,他说因为工业原材料的价格下降,进口可能下滑严重。

“中国主要进口的初级商口价格,现在处于低位,而一年前则处于历史高位”,他说。

不过,上月是一个例外,因为从1月26号开始是整整一周的长假。农历新年是中国人的最重要节日,而往年通常是在2月份。

因经,今年的1月份比往年同期少了5个工作日。海关方面称,如果考虑这个因素,1月份出口实际比上年同期增长了6.8%。与上年12月份相比,则是增长4.6%。

全球范围的通缩周期是另一个问题,经济学家称。进口的剧减是由于全球价格(尤其是原油与农产品价格)与电子元件需要下降引起的,而电子元件进口下降反映了国内制造业的收缩。

香港美林经济学有丁路说,对中国农历新年没有合适的方法进行调整。“我们的建议是,忽略它们”,路在发给客户的月度贸易数据的便条中称。

与周边经济相比,专家称,中国的记录并不是最差。JP摩根分析家Jing Ulrich在报道中写道,尽管最近的出口下滑使人惊恐,但中国的情况并没有周边那些过份依赖高新产业的经济体严重。

而摩根斯坦利首席经济学家王晶说,中国的出口结构地域更多样化,也因此相对更为稳定些。

 

译文:Foreign trade plummets 29% in January

A sharp fall in imports and exports in January, which included a weeklong Spring Festival holiday, has both puzzled and alarmed economists.

General Administration of Customs figures released yesterday showed exports plummeted 17.5 percent year-on-year, much sharper than the 2.8 percent fall in December.

Imports fell even more dramatically, to 43.1 percent year-on-year.

The combined foreign trade in January fell 29 percent year-on-year. Such a major decline in monthly foreign trade is rare in the 30 years of reform and opening up.

Because of the global economic downturn, foreign trade is likely to fall for several more months, the economists said. Su Chang, a macro-economic analyst with China Economic Business Monitor, said it could decline by 10 percent in the first quarter of this year.

"It is possible that China's yearly record will be negative as well." But, he said the decline in imports would be largely because of the fall in prices of industrial materials.

"Prices of primary goods - China's main imports - are at a low points now, while they were at historic highs just a year ago," he said.

Last month, however, was an exception because it had one full week of holiday from January 26. The Chinese Lunar New Year is the most important festival for Chinese but usually it falls in February.

So this year, January had five fewer working days than those in many of the previous years. If that is considered, the Customs said, exports actually rose 6.8 percent year-on-year in January. And compared with December, they increased 4.6 percent.

The worldwide deflationary cycle was another problem, the economists said. The sharp drop in imports was caused both because of a fall in global prices (most noticeably of crude oil and farm products) and a drop in demand for electronic components, which reflected the shrinking of the country's manufacturing industry.

Ting Lu, economist with Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said there was no good method to adjust for the Chinese New Year effects. "Our first suggestion: ignore them," Lu said in note to clients in the monthly trade figures.

When compared with neighboring economies, experts said, China's record is not the worst. Jing Ulrich, analyst with JP Morgan, has written in a report that while the recent export slowdown has been alarming, it has not been as severe in China as in some neighboring economies that rely more heavily on the hi-tech sector.

While Jing Wang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley, said China's export structure is more diverse, and as a result less volatile, in the region.

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