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经济开始复苏,或只是好转一点

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对于美国来说,是否意味着经济形势已经开始好转。

不,这并不是真正的机会。一系列好于预期的经济数据在本周和去年已宣布,预测下跌的速度似乎有所减少。这种放缓之前已经发生的事情开始改善。这可能意味着我们看到的开始结束的开始这讨厌的衰退。

再说,我们可能不会-和过早乐观已经受到惩罚已经多次在此低迷。因此,人谁谋生致电曲折和经济已经成为几乎滑稽宣布持谨慎态度的一个拐点。一些例子:

周三强于预期的数据,耐用品订单(高达3.4 % , 2月,但是从1月的数字已经向下修订)是一个“苗条一线希望在地平线上, ”联合信贷银行的经济学家研究的危害Bandholz的短信中指出,给客户。但是,他很快就指出, “投资和出口继续下降。 ” (阅读“如何知道什么时候经济谈到涨。 ” )

“的突然增加,在2月份的订单标志着一个相对温和的难以置信的疲软的经济数据在1月份报告中写道, ”米歇尔罗迈耶巴克莱资本在回答同一条耐用品数据。 “不过,我们不理解今天的报告作为一个信号的结束,制造业不景气。 ”

“我们准备危害认为,后雷曼危机已经过去,市场正在趋于稳定”是如何伊恩谢泼德森高频经济学迎接周三的报告引起的新屋销售数字。 “这是不一样的复苏,但总比在销售持续下降。 ” (见该企业5.40衰退。 )

“虽然这些事态发展提供了一些支持,我们期望,住房市场将逐渐趋于稳定,未来几个月, ”宣布肯特迈克尔斯高盛周二在运行通过其他积极的房地产数据, “他们远远什么信号恢复正常的部门。 “

这有几个原因这一切谨慎经济学家。一个是数字并不是所有积极的,良好的天数可以很容易地让位于一个令人失望运行。此外,有很大的噪声数据,似乎转折点,有时仅仅是产品的缺陷检测和随机机会。

另一个问题是,虽然有迹象表明,住房和消费者支出在美国不再是在自由降落的几个月前,其他地区的经济仍处于急剧下降。谢再次引用: “震中的衰退已转向从消费者到企业部门。 ”这可能是因为企业削减可能会导致消费者的复发。 “主要的下行风险可能是超过预期的倍增效应通过急剧恶化的劳动力市场, ”警告高盛经济学家简哈祖斯周一预测,消费支出将上升,在今年余下的。发言人说: “每周和每月的劳动力市场指标仍然呈现出加速就业萎缩。 ”

换言之,没有人真正知道,如果我们已经达到一个转折点尚未。但它至少是以往任何时候都这样略有鼓励,他们开始谈论一个。

译文:Is the Economy Starting to Recover? Or Just Less Bad?

Inside General Motors' Lansing Grand River Assembly plant in MichiganInside General Motors' Lansing Grand River Assembly plant in Michigan

Could it be that things are beginning to get better for the U.S.

Nope, no real chance of that. But a spate of somewhat better-than-expected economic numbers this week and last has forecasters declaring that the pace of decline seems to have slowed. Such a slowing has to happen before things start to improve. Which could mean that we're seeing the beginning of the .

Then again, we might not be — and premature optimists have been punished several times already during this downturn. So the people who make a living calling the twists and turns of the economy have become almost comically cautious about declaring an inflection point. Some examples:

Wednesday's stronger-than-expected data on durable-goods orders (up 3.4% in February, but from a January number that had been revised downward) was a "slim silver lining on the horizon," UniCredit Research economist Harm Bandholz wrote in a note to clients. But, he was quick to point out, "investment and exports continue to plummet." ()

"The unexpected increase in orders in February marks a moderation relative to the incredibly weak data in January," wrote Michelle Meyer of Barclays Capital in response to the same durable-goods data. "However, we do not interpret today's report as a signal of the end of the downturn in manufacturing."

"We are prepared to hazard the view that the post-Lehman meltdown is now over and the market is stabilizing" is how Ian Shepherdson of High-Frequency Economics greeted Wednesday's reported rise in new home sales. "That's not the same as a recovery, but it is better than continued declines in sales." ()

"While these developments provide some support for our expectation that housing will stabilize in coming months," declared Kent Michaels of Goldman Sachs on Tuesday after running through other positive real estate data, "they fall well short of what would normally signal recovery in the sector."

There are several reasons for all this caution among economists. One is that the numbers aren't all that positive, and a few good days could easily give way to a disappointing run. Also, there's a lot of noise in the data, and seeming turning points are sometimes just the product of flawed measurement and random chance.

Another issue is that while there are signs that housing and consumer spending in the U.S. are no longer in the free fall of a few months ago, other parts of the economy are still in sharp decline. To quote Shepherdson again: "The epicenter of the recession has shifted from the consumer to the corporate sector." And it's possible that corporate cutbacks could lead to a relapse among consumers. "The main downside risk probably lies in sharper-than-expected multiplier effects via the dramatic deterioration in the labor market," warned Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius on Monday after predicting that consumer spending would rise for the rest of the year. "Both the weekly and monthly labor market indicators still show an accelerating employment contraction."

In other words, nobody really knows if we've hit a turning point yet. But it is at least ever so slightly encouraging that they're starting to talk about one.

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