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中国经济出现泡沫?

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中国经济呈现泡沫?

还没有。可是如不美观中国的抉择妄想者不让人平易近币升值,中国不久就会呈现危险的泡沫。

世界经济是否已经呈现新的泡沫?警语的呼声越来越高。理由很简单:中国魏崴扩年夜内需,制造了年夜量信贷。这种放贷正激发不成持续的资产价钱上涨,而投资的华侈,正在诱发产能过剩。所以,中国的经济刺激方案势必引起衰退。

这个不雅概念正确与否不太主要,对于全球经济来说,更主要的还有几点。美国和其他英语国家因为资产贬值,经济受到削弱,未来几年的全球经济增添将年夜年夜依靠中国。资产年夜幅贬值或者银行倒闭,都将进一步放慢全球经济。没人会质疑中国的放贷增添很快。到八月份,借贷增添34%,是名义GDP增幅的四倍。不管若何,现在有些过度惊骇了。原因有四点。

第一,中国的股票和房地产都没有过度增值。市盈率24,远远低于持久的平均值。上海和其他城市的房价增添很快,可是年夜全国来看,房价刚刚举头。第二,即便中国的资产价钱年夜起年夜落,损失踪也会远远低于其他国家,因为中国的房价和股价没有激发过多的欠债型借贷。中产阶级家庭中,只有年夜约四分之一有按揭贷款,平均的放贷比率不到50%。

第三,虽然中国的成天职配效率还有很年夜的增添幅度,可是放贷的增添不想有人担忧的那样毫无效率。年夜部门投资是成长基本行动措施,而基本行动措施改善应该能提横跨产率。最后,中国的官员和西方官员纷歧样,他们持久以来一向担忧放贷增添过度和资产价钱泡沫的问题。即便此刻,监管机构也在严酷划定,要求第二套房的首付更多,银行的拨备更高,尽管中国的政治家们承诺放松货泉政策。

可是,即便对于泡沫的担忧过分了,仍是有良多中期的风险。流动性太高,低通胀高增添都是导致资产价钱通胀的最佳前提。此外,中国缺乏一种匹敌泡沫的主要工具:提高利率的能力。

人平易近币何去何年夜?

曩昔几年迈,魏崴扩年夜出口,人平易近币一向连结对美元低利率。现实上,这样就把中国的货泉情形和美国的货泉情形绑在了一路。到今朝为止,这还不算什么。国内通缩意味着中国的现实利率是年夜国中最高的。可是这样绑在一路,未来会越来越危险。美国经济衰退,货泉情形过度宽松的时刻可能会超出中国的想象。今朝这种绑定如不美观持续过久,资产泡沫将会呈现。

中国的经济平衡需要人平易近币坚挺。同样,避免泡沫也需要矫捷的汇率。这种改变并不简单。人平易近币汇率过高,至少会且则使资产泡沫恶化,因为相信人平易近币还会升值的外国成本将涌入中国。是以,应该谨严不美判定,采纳步履,不能坐视不管。人平易近币和美元绑定的时刻越长,汇率扭曲的水平越年夜,任何货泉调整的风险也越年夜。如不美观没有自力的货泉政策,中国最终会酿成泡沫经济。要避免这种命运,中国必需铺开汇率。

译文:A bubble in China?

The debate about Chinese asset prices

A bubble in Beijing?

Oct 8th 2009
From The Economist print edition

Not yet. But China will soon look dangerously frothy unless policymakers allow the yuan to rise


HAS the world got a new bubble economy? A rising chorus of foam-spotters believes so. Their argument is simple: to support demand, China’s government has created huge quantities of credit. That lending is leading to unsustainable asset-price inflation, while wasteful investment is producing oodles of excess capacity. As a result, China’s stimulus will inevitably be followed by a bust down the road (see ).

Few things matter more for the global economy than whether this argument is right. With America and other economies in the English-speaking world weakened by their own asset busts, the pace of global growth over the next couple of years will depend heavily on China. A painful asset slump or banking collapse there would further slow the pace of global growth. No one doubts that credit has been growing dramatically in the Middle Kingdom. Lending grew by 34% in the year to August, around four times faster than nominal GDP. Nonetheless, today’s fears are exaggerated—for four main reasons.

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First, neither China’s stock nor property markets looks dangerously overvalued. The average price/earnings multiple, at 24, is well below China’s long-run average. Property prices are rising smartly in Shanghai and other cities, but nationally house-price growth has only just turned positive. Next, even if China’s asset prices surge and then slump, the damage will be less grave than elsewhere, because China’s house and share prices have not led to too much debt-driven borrowing. Only around a quarter of middle-class homeowners have mortgages and the average loan-to-value is less than 50%.

Third, although there is much scope to improve the efficiency of capital allocation in China, the lending boost may not be as inefficient as some fear. Much has gone into infrastructure, which ought to improve the rate of productivity growth. Lastly, Chinese officials have long been more worried about excess credit growth and asset-price bubbles than many of their Western counterparts. Even now, regulators are tightening the rules—demanding bigger down-payments on second homes and higher provisioning from banks—even as Beijing’s politicians promise that monetary conditions will stay loose.

But even if immediate worries about a bubble are overdone, there are medium-term risks. Ample liquidity, low inflation and strong growth are the perfect ingredients for sustained asset-price inflation. And China lacks one essential anti-bubble instrument: the ability to raise interest rates.

Yuan to do what?

To support its exporters China has kept the yuan stable against the dollar over the past year, in effect tying China’s monetary conditions to America’s. So far that has mattered little. Domestic deflation means China’s real interest rates are the highest of any big economy. But this monetary coupling will become increasingly dangerous. America’s weak economy means its monetary conditions are likely to stay ultra-loose for far longer than makes sense for China. Left in place too long, the currency alignment could swell an asset bubble.

Just as the rebalancing of China’s economy calls for a stronger yuan, so the ability to avert bubbles requires a more flexible one. The transition will not be easy. The spectre of a stronger yuan will, temporarily at least, worsen China’s asset-price bubbliness, as foreign capital floods into the country in anticipation of a stronger currency. But this argues for acting quickly and carefully, rather than doing nothing. The longer China shadows the dollar, the bigger the distortions and the risks from any currency adjustment. Without an independent monetary policy China will eventually become a bubble economy. To avoid that fate, Beijing must let go of the yuan.

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