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大西洋不久将产生热带风暴

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年夜西洋今年第一个热带风暴不久将被命名。天色学家说。同时,按照某些电脑预告,至少两个以上的风暴在比来的二到三周之内形成。这就意味着糊口在东海岸的居平易近将要慎密亲密注重天色预告。

在AccuWeather.com网站工作的天色学家,Brian Edwards说:“下两个月我们将达到热带季节勾当期的岑岭。到周三上午为止,我们可能遭遇第一个明晰的热带风暴。

今年第一个热带风暴的名字将是Ana.

比来,一个暴风雨系统在佛得角群岛西南几百米四周呈现,在非洲海岸四周。即使它可能成为热带风暴Ana,可是估量可能不会成为完全的飓风。Edwards师长教师说:“就是否成为飓风这一点,它可能不是,可是此刻嗣魅这些还为时尚早。”

他说:“然而,在可能成为风暴Ana的东边是另一个更强有力的热带波-应该在此后12到24小时呈此刻年夜西洋的非洲上方的低压区。一旦它经由过程海岸,将进入一个相对轻易成长的地域。”

Edwards说:“第二个系统将进入年夜西洋,与第一个系统对比它加倍湿热。原因是一些天色预告计较机模子显示在随后的12到15天将成长为一个巨年夜的风暴。一些模子让它上升到东海岸,一些将让它出海。”

然而,第三个热带波在小安的列斯群岛东面。阿谁系统将转移到墨西哥湾,Edwards说。可是,他又说,加勒比海对于飓风度长来说是一个很是欠好的处所。

阿谁欠好的情形部门因为厄尔尼诺现象。当承平洋的海水比凡是暖和的时辰,厄尔尼诺现象就影响风海流。这些风海流可以在加勒比海制造风切,阻碍在年夜西洋的飓风度长。

正在成长中的厄尔尼诺现象部门导致了科罗拉多年夜学的Philip Klotzbach 和Willian Gray在一个礼拜前调整了年夜西洋地域的预告。在六月,他们命名了11个风暴,此刻,他们正在命名10个风暴,其中两个是首要飓风。他们的工作,首要基于数据统计,显示出微量削减的飓风季节。

Klotzbach师长教师说:“与2002年和2006年,我们认为这将是一个低于泛泛的飓风季节。在这些年,这宿将不会有可以着陆的年夜飓风。

可是,他又说:“在你们的地域选出一个风暴成为一个活跃的飓风季。”

Klotzbach和Gray在他们的八月剖析中说,履历某些低于平均水平飓风发生次数的年份是分歧平常的。可是这并不能改变对下个10年到15年的不雅概念和观点。年夜西洋飓风季节将会活跃的。

译文:Atlantic will produce tropical storm soon

The Atlantic's first tropical storm of the year will be named shortly, meteorologists say. And at least two more storms could form in the next two to three weeks, according to some computer forecasts. What this means is that residents living along the East Coast will need to pay attention to the weather forecast.

"We will be getting to the peak of the tropical season over the next two months," says Brian Edwards, a meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. "By [Wednesday] morning, we could have our first named storm."

The first name for a storm this year will be Ana.

Currently, a storm system is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which are off the coast of Africa. Even if it becomes tropical storm Ana, it's not expected to become a full-fledged hurricane. "At this point, it probably would not, but it's too early to tell," Mr. Edwards says.

However, to the east of what could become Ana is another, more potent tropical wave – a low-pressure zone over Africa that should emerge into the Atlantic in the next 12 to 24 hours. "Once it's off the coast, it enters an area that is favorable to development," he says.

The second system would be entering an Atlantic that is considerably more humid as a result of the first system. This is one reason that some AccuWeather computer models show a powerful storm developing in the next 12 to 15 days. "Some of the models have it going up the East Coast. Some have it going out to sea," says Edwards.

Yet a third tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles. That system could move into the Gulf of Mexico, Edwards says. But, he adds, right now the Caribbean is a very hostile place for hurricane development.

That hostile environment is partly the result of a developing El Ni?o event. El Ni?o is when some of the Pacific Ocean's waters become warmer than normal, affecting the wind currents. Those wind currents can create wind shear in the Caribbean, which inhibits hurricane development in the Atlantic.

The developing El Ni?o is partly why Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University adjusted their forecast for the Atlantic area a week ago. In June, they called for 11 named storms; now, they're calling for 10 named storms, two of them major hurricanes. Their work, much of it based on statistical data, shows a slightly reduced hurricane season.

"We think this will be a below-normal hurricane season, comparable to 2002 and 2006," says Mr. Klotzbach. "In those years, there were no major hurricanes that had a landfall."

But, he adds, "It only takes one storm in your area for it to be an active hurricane season for you."

It's not unusual to have some below-average hurricane years, Klotzbach and Mr. Gray say in their August analysis. But this doesn't change their view that for the next 10 to 15 years, the Atlantic hurricane seasons will be active.

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